Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap using a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model Containing Phase Shifts

Several recent studies have used multivariate unobserved components models to identify the output gap and the NAIRU. A key assumption of these models is that one common cycle component, such as the output gap, drives the cyclical fluctuations in all variables included in the model. This paper also uses the multivariate approach to estimate the euro area output gap and the trends and cycles in other macroeconomic variables. However, it adopts a flexible way of linking the output gap to the cycle components in the other variables, in that we do not impose any leading or lagging restrictions between cycle components, as has been done in most previous studies. Our approach also allows us to assess the strength of cycle association and crosscorrelation among cycle components using the model’s parameter estimates. Finally, we demonstrate that our multivariate model can provide a satisfactory historical output gap estimate and also a ‘real-time’ estimate for the aggregate euro area.